A year ago the Tories were 12 points ahead – now they are eight points behind.
06 June 2022
Labour has enjoyed a small but steady lead over the Conservatives in the opinion polls for the past six months.
The size of the lead has varied, from an average of just three points to as many as 11 points.
Sir Keir Starmer’s party first moved ahead in the polls in early December 2021, around the time stories first began to emerge of Downing Street parties during Covid-19 lockdowns.
Before this point, Labour had spent much of the previous few years trailing well behind the Government.
Based on a seven-day rolling average of all national published polls, Labour’s vote share stood at 40% on June 6, ahead of the Conservatives on 32%, with the Liberal Democrats on 12% and the Greens on 6%.
Exactly a year ago, on June 6 2021, the Conservatives were averaging 45%, Labour 33%, and the Lib Dems and Greens both 7%.
Opinion polls are snapshots of the prevailing public mood, not projections or forecasts.
With the next general election still more than two years away – the latest possible date is January 24 2025 – there is plenty of time for the national numbers to change.
But polls both shape and reflect the prevailing mood of the country, in turn affecting morale among politicians and party members alike.
The news for the Conservatives is equally grim when looking at Boris Johnson’s popularity scores.
The Prime Minister’s net favourability rating – the difference between the proportion of people saying they have a favourable opinion of him and those who have an unfavourable opinion – has been at or near an all-time low since January.
It currently stands at minus 45 points, according to figures compiled by the polling group YouGov, having dipped as far as minus 52 at the start of the year.
Boris Johnson has had negative favourability ratings for almost his entire premiership, save for a few weeks in spring 2020 at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
It is only in recent months that the score has sunk below minus 40, however.