Our ageing population

Population growth in the UK has been slowing for decades. That might sound like a good thing, bearing in mind dwindling natural resources and the adverse impact that billions of humans have had on the environment – as highlighted most notably by David Attenborough.

But, unlike Attenborough, not all nonagenarians are still active. Many older folk depend on younger generations to take care of them, either directly in hospitals or care homes, or indirectly by providing fundamental services we all rely on. And there is already a critical NHS staff shortage of thousands of nurses and doctors.

With increasing numbers of 70- and 80-year-olds and falling numbers of under-fives, are we heading the same way as Japan? Japan’s low birth rate and increased longevity have led to an estimate that nearly 40% of its population will be 65-plus by 2060.

One could argue that a diminishing number of young taxpayers in the UK will eventually become a slimmed-down population of oldies. But it’s what happens in the meantime – with a boom in the elderly and a dearth of young people – that is a cause for concern.

Controversial demographer Paul Morland, author of Tomorrow’s People: The Future of Humanity in Ten Numbers, has highlighted this problem and one of his suggestions is a tax on couples who don’t have children.

One might think this more of a talking point (or a way to boost book sales) rather than a serious suggestion, but it has provoked serious reaction. Kat Brown, editor of No One Talks About This Stuff, an anthology about infertility and child loss, has been particularly vociferous. She makes the point that young couples are already under immense financial pressures and the last thing they need is a new penalty hanging over them for not reproducing. She also sees Morland’s suggestion as offensive to the involuntarily childless, the chronically ill and the LGBTQ+ community.

Many childless couples will argue that they already pay huge subsidies into education and health for services they themselves will not use – or that they are helping the planet by not adding to the population. The counter-argument is that without enough working people, our economy faces collapse.

A “third way” would be to address the factors putting people off having children, eg promote a stable economy, provide affordable housing.

Part of Japan’s response has been to encourage the elderly to be more active in society and less dependent. In the UK the state pension age has already gone up progressively – but it could radically be raised further.

And there is the question of immigration and whether that can be a tool for topping up the working population – or does it make matters worse? In Brexit Britain this opens a whole other debate.

Morland also suggests “public figures can lead the way with words and actions” in promoting fertility, saying: “The prime minister, with his seven known offspring, has a track record in this regard.” But exemplifying Boris Johnson as a role model for parents may not have been his cleverest idea.